
在“下注新闻”部分查找行报告、最佳下注并订阅推送通知。
近几年来,在NBA三分制比赛中下注对远投投注者来说是个福音。自2014年该领域扩大到8名球员以来,最受欢迎的球员只赢了一次(2015年),平均赢家获得的赔率约为+550。
但有这么多候选人,要找到大赢家可能会让人望而生畏。不用担心:我们已经为你做了所有的工作,分析了过去10年的数据来发现今年的冠军。
下面是每一位2020年参赛者的胜算,包括场地的分类、过去的赢家和我们最喜欢的赌注。
玩家
今年耀眼的头条新闻是全明星崔英,但最受投注青睐的是大二学生邓肯·罗宾逊,他目前以43.8%的分数领先于本赛季的三个。回归的是一对在乔哈里斯(2019年)和德文布克(2018年)的过去的冠军,而巴迪希尔德在一年前进入决赛后又回来了。
以下是八名球员的常规赛数据:
玩家
基本的计数统计数据虽然有助于一目了然,但很少能预示胜利者。自2010年以来,每场比赛只有一名冠军以三分球领先(2015年),只有两名冠军以3分率领先(2014年、2019年)。相反,它有助于找到更接近模拟这样一场比赛的统计数据。
戴维斯·伯坦斯(3.2)和罗宾逊(3.2)在接到球后两秒钟内的三分球中分别排名NBA第一和第二。在这些投篮中,罗宾逊以每场至少5次的命中率在所有球员中排名第二(44.3%);伯坦斯排名第四(43.3%)。
伯坦斯(3.0分)和罗宾逊(2.9分)也是NBA每场接球和投篮最多的球员。杨的命中率最高(47.6%),但罗宾逊(44.4%)和伯坦(43.4%)紧随其后。
一个有趣的提示:今年的比赛将引入一个新的起皱,两次30英尺的射门各得3分。这对年轻人有好处,对吧?不是那么快。伯坦斯在本赛季从30英尺(70%)到更高的20英尺(14/20)变得水泡四溅。唯一一个超过50%的球员是哈里斯,他在这个范围内1:1。
谁看起来像胜利者?
我们跟踪了过去10年每位参赛者的统计数据和球员资料,看看是否有任何趋势可以指导今年的比赛。首先,这里是之前的冠军以及他们获胜赛季每场比赛的统计数据:
年
让我们做一些消除的过程,好吗?
首先,杀手:前冠军在过去10年中16胜0负,而这些再次夺冠的尝试中,很多都没有达到目标。对不起,哈里斯和布克。你玩得很开心。
前10个冠军中有5个是同一个周末的全明星赛,但他们中的10个在常规赛中的命中率至少是37%。也许杨应该坚持今年的全明星赛。
这是一个对远射的奖励,但不是对无名小卒的奖励-在最后八个赢家中有七个平均每场至少13分,这对罗宾逊来说是个坏消息。在过去的10年里,他也将是第二个最受欢迎的赢家,这让他在短期内难以接受。
你觉得10比1就能找到家乡人最喜欢的东西吗?好吧,东道主队的一名球员在33年的三分赛历史上从来没有赢过。在芝加哥公牛队球星扎克·拉文落选后,球迷们可能会失望地离开。
这使得伯坦斯、希尔德和德文特的格雷厄姆成为基于过去胜利者的可行赌注。希尔德在去年的比赛中表现出了希望,格雷厄姆11:1的表现很好,但我们的选择是。。。
最佳选择-伯坦(+450)
拉脱维亚神枪手非常适合周六的比赛:他有一个快速的释放,他在接球和三分球上都是致命的,而且他在超过30英尺的地方失去知觉。27岁的他只比2010-19赛季的中位数冠军大一岁,而且他在最近几届冠军的价格区间内。
这位身高6英尺10英寸的前锋将是自2006年诺维茨基(7英尺)以来最高的赢家,但这比伯坦的机会更能说明今天的比赛。华盛顿奇才狙击手检查了所有的盒子,他也是一个价值,在一些书中被列为高达6-1。
大买伯坦,也投资一些格雷厄姆和希尔德股票。没有什么比在三分赛中为三个人加油更有趣的了。以后你会感谢我的。
原标题:
Three-Point Contest best bet: 1 player checks all the winning boxes
原文:
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Wagering on the NBA Three-Point Contest has been a boon for long-shot bettors in recent years. Since the field expanded to eight players in 2014, the favorite has won just once (2015), and the average winner has been given roughly +550 odds.
But with so many candidates, it can be daunting to find the big winner. Fear not: We've done all the work for you, analyzing data from the past 10 years to uncover this year's champion.
Below are the odds for each 2020 contestant with a breakdown of the field, past winners, and our favorite bet.
Player Odds Duncan Robinson +375 Trae Young +400 Davis Bertans +450 Joe Harris +450 Devin Booker +550 Buddy Hield +550 Zach LaVine +1000 Devonte' Graham +1100 Who's in the field?
The flashy headliner this year is All-Star Trae Young, but the betting favorite is sophomore Duncan Robinson, who currently leads the field with a 43.8% mark from three this season. Returning are a pair of past champions in Joe Harris (2019) and Devin Booker (2018), while Buddy Hield is back after reaching the final of the competition a year ago.
Here are regular-season stats for all eight players:
PLAYER 3PT/G 3PT% Duncan Robinson 3.5 43.8 Davis Bertans 3.5 42.4 Joe Harris 2.4 40.8 Buddy Hield 3.8 38.5 Zach LaVine 3.1 38.5 Devonte' Graham 3.5 37.4 Trae Young 3.5 36.9 Devin Booker 1.9 35.8
While helpful at a glance, basic counting stats rarely foretell a winner. Since 2010, only one champion led the field in 3-pointers per game (2015) and just two led the field in 3-point percentage (2014, 2019). Instead, it helps to find stats that more closely simulate a contest like this one.
Davis Bertans (3.2) and Robinson (3.2) rank first and second in the NBA in made threes taken within two seconds of receiving the ball. On those shots, Robinson ranks second in efficiency (44.3%) among all players with at least five attempts per game; Bertans ranks fourth (43.3%).
Bertans (3.0) and Robinson (2.9) have also made the most catch-and-shoot threes per game in the NBA. Young has the best percentage (47.6%) on those shots, but Robinson (44.4%) and Bertans (43.4%) are close behind.
An interesting note: This year's contest will introduce a new wrinkle, with two 30-foot shots being worth three points apiece. That should benefit Young, right? Not so fast. Bertans has gone a blistering 14-of-20 (70%) from 30 feet and beyond this season. The only other player above 50% is Harris, who's 1-for-1 from that range.
Who looks like a winner?
We tracked the stats and player profiles of every contestant from the past 10 years to see if there were any trends that could guide this year's field. First, here are the previous champions along with the per-game stats from their winning season:
Year Player Odds 3PT/G 3PT% 2019 Joe Harris +600 2.4 47.4 2018 Devin Booker +600 2.7 38.3 2017 Eric Gordon +600 3.3 37.2 2016 Klay Thompson +400 3.5 42.5 2015 Stephen Curry +325 3.6 44.3 2014 Marco Belinelli +800 1.6 43 2013 Kyrie Irving +400 1.8 39.1 2012 Kevin Love +500 1.9 37.2 2011 James Jones +300 1.5 42.9 2010 Paul Pierce +400 1.5 41.4
Let's do some process of elimination, shall we?
First, the killer: Former contest champions have gone 0-for-16 in the past 10 years, and many of those attempts to win again haven't come close. Sorry, Harris and Booker. You've had your fun.
Five of the 10 previous champions were All-Stars on the same weekend, but all 10 of them shot at least 37% from three during the regular season. Maybe Young should stick to the All-Star Game this year.
This has been an award for long shots, but not nobodies - seven of the last eight winners averaged at least 13 points per game, which is bad news for Robinson. He'd also be just the second favorite to win in the past 10 years, which makes him unpalatable at a short price.
Think you can find sneaky value on the hometown favorite at 10-1? Well, a player from the host team has never won in the 33-year history of the Three-Point Contest. The fans could leave disappointed after Chicago Bulls star Zach LaVine falls short.
That leaves Bertans, Hield, and Devonte' Graham as viable bets based on past winners. Hield showed promise in last year's contest and Graham is tasty at 11-1, but our pick is ...
Best bet - Bertans (+450)
The Latvian sharpshooter is a perfect fit for Saturday's contest: He's got a quick release, he's deadly on catch-and-shoot threes, and he's unconscious from beyond 30 feet. At 27, he's just one year older than the median winner from 2010-19, and he's in the price range of most recent champions.
The 6-foot-10 forward would be the tallest winner since Dirk Nowitzki (7-feet) in 2006, but that says more about today's game than Bertan's chances. The Washington Wizards sniper checks all the boxes and he's a value, too, being listed as high as 6-1 at some books.
Buy big on Bertans, but also invest in some Graham and Hield stock. Nothing's more fun than rooting for three guys in the 3-point contest. You'll thank me later.